TRANSFORMING TURBULENCE INTO TRANQUILITY
CONFLICT DYNAMICS AND PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABLE PEACE IN SOMALIA, 1991–2025
Abstract
This study examined the evolution of Somalia’s protracted conflict from the collapse of the state in 1991 to ongoing peacebuilding efforts as of 2025. It identified the key drivers of instability as politicized clan dynamics, warlordism, violent extremism—particularly the rise of Al-Shabaab—and recurrent foreign interventions, all compounded by systemic governance failures, socio-economic marginalization, and unresolved historical grievances. Anchored in Conflict Transformation Theory (Lederach, 1997) and Protracted Social Conflict Theory (Azar, 1990), the research explored how identity-based cleavages and entrenched inequalities have sustained cycles of violence. Employing a qualitative case study approach and document analysis, the study evaluated peacebuilding strategies such as federalism, national dialogue forums, African Union missions (AMISOM and ATMIS), and indigenous reconciliation mechanisms, especially Xeer-based mediation. The findings revealed that while international interventions have contributed to territorial gains and institutional stabilization, they often fell short in addressing grassroots legitimacy and the structural causes of conflict. In contrast, community-driven initiatives—particularly those involving traditional elders, women, and youth—proved more effective in fostering sustainable peace. The study concluded that durable stability in Somalia requires Somali-led governance reforms, strengthened coordination between federal and local authorities, a calibrated reduction in reliance on external peacekeepers, and strategic investment in inclusive, locally rooted development efforts.
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