ROLE OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN RESOLVING THE CONGOLESE CONFLICTS
THE CASE OF SADC AND EAC
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of regional interventions on conflict resolution in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 2010 to 2024. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research combines qualitative analysis with econometric modeling, employing annual panel data from multiple sources, including the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, World Bank indicators, OECD aid data, and official reports from regional bodies such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC). The study aims to evaluate how various regional interventions—military, diplomatic, and peace-building efforts—affect the level of conflict intensity in the DRC, a country that has been embroiled in prolonged conflict, particularly in its eastern regions. The econometric model applied is a fixed-effects regression, analyzing the influence of regional interventions, peace agreements, military support, diplomatic missions, GDP growth, political stability, and foreign aid on conflict intensity in the DRC. The Conflict Intensity Index (CII) serves as the dependent variable, representing the severity of conflict in the region, while key independent variables include regional interventions (RI), the number of peace agreements (PA), military support (MS), diplomatic missions (DM), economic factors like GDP growth (GDP), and political stability (Stability). The results indicate that regional interventions, peace agreements, and diplomatic missions have a significant negative effect on conflict intensity, suggesting that concerted regional efforts are crucial in mitigating violence. Specifically, regional interventions (β = -0.42, p = 0.001) and peace agreements (β = -0.25, p = 0.002) reduce conflict intensity, affirming the importance of structured peace processes and diplomacy in conflict resolution. In contrast, military support alone (β = -0.18, p = 0.370) did not exhibit a statistically significant effect, highlighting the need for a more integrated approach where military interventions are complemented by diplomatic strategies. The analysis further reveals that economic growth (β = -0.15, p = 0.035) and political stability (β = -0.27, p = 0.003) contribute significantly to the reduction of conflict intensity, supporting the argument that sustainable peace requires not just military or diplomatic interventions but also a focus on socioeconomic development and institutional strengthening. However, foreign aid (β = -0.04, p = 0.740) was found to have no significant direct effect on conflict intensity, suggesting that aid, while necessary, does not alone address the root causes of conflict. The study’s findings underscore the importance of integrated, multifaceted interventions in reducing conflict intensity. While regional military interventions can play a role, the results stress the pivotal role of diplomatic engagement and peace agreements, as well as the broader contextual factors like economic growth and political stability. Furthermore, the lack of significant findings regarding foreign aid calls for a reevaluation of donor-driven agendas and a more localized approach to peacebuilding that aligns better with the needs and sovereignty of the DRC. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on conflict resolution, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics between military, diplomatic, and economic factors in post-conflict environments. The study also provides a foundation for future research on the role of regional organizations in managing and mitigating conflict in Africa, particularly in countries with ongoing instability such as the DRC.
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