FINANCIAL PLANNING AND VARIATION IN OWN-SOURCE REVENUE GROWTH IN TAITA TAVETA COUNTY, KENYA
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Abstract
Own-source revenue (OSR) is a critical source of fiscal sustainability for county governments because it supports service delivery, finances development programmes, and reduces dependence on intergovernmental transfers. However, despite improvements in revenue performance across Kenyan counties, substantial disparities in revenue growth and stability persist. Taita Taveta County has continued to experience fluctuations in own-source revenue performance characterized by inconsistencies in budget execution, expenditure control, and revenue realization, thereby affecting fiscal stability and service delivery. This study, therefore, examined the effect of financial planning on variation in own-source revenue growth in Taita Taveta County, Kenya. The study was anchored on Public Financial Management Theory and adopted a descriptive research design. Secondary data were obtained from official county financial records and reports covering the period 2013–2024. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, and Granger causality tests with the aid of STATA software. The findings established that financial planning had a positive and statistically significant effect on variation in own-source revenue growth (β = 0.421, p < .001). Correlation analysis revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial planning and variation in own-source revenue growth (r = 0.645, p < .01). Regression results further showed that financial planning explained 41.6% of the variation in own-source revenue growth (R² = 0.416). The descriptive findings revealed persistent weaknesses in budget execution, expenditure control, and budget forecasting accuracy, reflected through expenditure deviations, fiscal deficits, and revenue forecast variances. The study concludes that strengthening financial planning, particularly budget forecasting accuracy and expenditure control, is essential for improving fiscal discipline and promoting sustainable own-source revenue growth in Taita Taveta County. The study recommends strengthening budget execution systems, improving budget forecasting mechanisms, and enhancing expenditure monitoring processes to improve fiscal sustainability.
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References
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