THE ROLE OF THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE IN PROMOTING PEACE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, SUDAN, AND EGYPT
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Abstract
This study investigates the role of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in promoting peace and regional development among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected through structured questionnaires (n = 165) and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including government officials, NBI representatives, policy analysts, and civil society actors. Regression and correlation analyses were employed to assess the influence of four NBI-led domains—water resource management policies (WRMP), conflict resolution mechanisms (CRM), infrastructure development (ID), and capacity building (CB)—on peace and regional development (PRD). Findings reveal that WRMP (β = 0.669, p < 0.001), CB (β = 0.312, p < 0.001), and ID (β = 0.192, p < 0.001) significantly and positively influence PRD. Surprisingly, CRM exhibited a negative relationship (β = –0.149, p = 0.002), suggesting limitations in current diplomatic frameworks. Qualitative insights corroborate these results, highlighting the NBI’s success in fostering technical cooperation but identifying political mistrust and non-binding enforcement as key constraints. The study concludes that equitable, transparent, and inclusive water governance—backed by institutional capacity and joint infrastructure—is critical for sustaining peace and development in the Nile Basin. Recommendations include strengthening legal frameworks, deepening community engagement, and institutionalizing NBI mechanisms within national policies.
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References
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