DEFRAGMENTATION OF REGIONAL BLOCS AND AFCFTA (ZLECAF): CASE STUDY OF TRADE BORDERS POLICY
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Abstract
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2019, aims to integrate 54 African nations into a single market, targeting a 52% increase in intra-African trade by 2030 from its current 16-18%. However, overlapping Regional Economic Communities (RECs) create regulatory fragmentation, with divergent tariffs, rules of origin (RoO), and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) inflating trade costs by 30-50%. This study examines how AfCFTA’s trade borders policy—encompassing tariff liberalization, NTB reduction, and border facilitation drives REC defragmentation, focusing on the Kenya-Tanzania and Rwanda borders (EAC) and the Mali-Burkina Faso border (ECOWAS). Using a mixed-methods approach with panel data (2019–2025), EAC Cross-Border Trade Reports (2024), COMESA surveys, and ECOWAS Trade Information Systems (2022–2024), we analyze trade volumes, gender dynamics, and institutional challenges. Findings show that AfCFTA’s harmonized RoO and digital NTB platforms reduce trade costs by 15-20%, with one-stop border posts (OSBPs) boosting informal cross-border trade (ICBT) by 15% in EAC (p<0.01). ICBT, comprising 30-40% of intra-regional flows, supports food security and livelihoods, with women dominating over 50% of trade. However, the 2025 ECOWAS withdrawal by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger (Alliance of Sahel States) disrupts 15-20% of regional trade, exacerbated by political conflicts and potential U.S. tariffs under a Trump administration, undermining peace and development. Challenges like infrastructure deficits, low RoO compliance (60% of firms), and gender disparities (45% harassment incidence) persist. We recommend enhanced AU-RECs coordination, gender-sensitive digital tools (e.g., EACPass, ECOTIS), and infrastructure investment to integrate ICBT into AfCFTA frameworks, potentially boosting trade by 10-15% and fostering inclusive, resilient regionalism.
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